Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 3.015195 3.529426 4.099786 4.778613 5.563844 6.442930 7.501079
2025-11-23 2.142918 2.807802 3.626166 4.704403 6.084408 7.787977 10.046987
2025-11-30 1.709954 2.459286 3.463933 4.901959 6.899058 9.564934 13.382498
2025-12-07 1.356912 2.114413 3.207152 4.885459 7.382545 10.941479 16.374780
2025-12-14 1.102888 1.844563 2.985542 4.849194 7.792930 12.232237 19.392128
2025-12-21 0.922807 1.644848 2.821544 4.852000 8.233876 13.594374 22.666988
2025-12-28 0.852083 1.606457 2.899685 5.240927 9.324496 16.082369 28.005430
2026-01-04 0.748929 1.489803 2.822650 5.348038 9.948911 17.877893 32.422794
2026-01-11 0.664754 1.390686 2.756958 5.457952 10.581813 19.749349 37.180829
2026-01-18 0.583887 1.282020 2.653959 5.478170 11.045445 21.365755 41.664628
2026-01-25 0.507639 1.168013 2.520979 5.416667 11.338664 22.694332 45.760769
2026-02-01 0.422204 1.018185 2.291243 5.123790 11.132306 23.046522 48.029798
2026-02-08 0.362695 0.916866 2.151009 5.005230 11.283296 24.151343 51.994488
2026-02-15 0.316671 0.838258 2.048015 4.952944 11.570797 25.575817 56.807422
2026-02-22 0.294818 0.814058 2.063923 5.169621 12.473854 28.384868 64.846346
2026-03-01 0.261638 0.754347 1.986159 5.155456 12.854043 30.121672 70.794081
2026-03-08 0.231774 0.697165 1.904593 5.118387 13.173959 31.761230 76.719509
2026-03-15 0.207830 0.651245 1.843432 5.121727 13.589496 33.662910 83.458181
2026-03-22 0.204262 0.663031 1.934901 5.531356 15.062482 38.183105 96.783721
2026-03-29 0.188502 0.635376 1.915437 5.644170 15.798602 41.038893 106.480710
2026-04-05 0.174432 0.609999 1.898044 5.759897 16.558019 44.038011 116.864233
2026-04-12 0.158659 0.575836 1.849672 5.781187 17.068271 46.476223 126.131389
2026-04-19 0.142068 0.535335 1.775568 5.716444 17.333849 48.322581 134.107337